WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 10, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national battleground poll (conducted June 30 – July 1) of 1,515 likely general election voters.
“Biden’s debate performance has further fractured the Democratic coalition with Black and young voters,” said Pollster and Vice President of Polling, Brock McCleary. “It’s clear the debate was an inflection point as 57 percent of Biden’s 2020 battleground voters think he should step aside. On the eve of the GOP convention, Trump leads by 21 percent among voters who say they are voting FOR their candidate and not AGAINST his opponent.”
Here are McCleary’s top takeaways:
Debate Fallout: following the first presidential debate, 64% of battleground district voters agree Joe Biden should not seek reelection and allow another candidate to seek the Democratic nomination. This includes 57% of those who voted for Biden in 2020. Trump was overwhelmingly seen as the winner (54%) compared to only 10% who thought Biden won the debate. Meanwhile, 41% of Independents said neither candidate won. Of those who watched the debate, 51% said they would vote for Trump.
Word Association: when asked to identify one word to describe each candidate’s debate performance, Trump’s most associated words were: confident (65%), energetic (62%), strong (54%), and prepared (51%) while 43% thought he looked presidential. Biden’s most associated words were: caring (37%), honest (33%), and trustworthy (32%), while only 21% said presidential.
Stepping Down: more Independent voters (72%) than Republicans (70%) think Biden should step away from seeking the Democratic nomination. 52% of Democrats agreed.
Views and Values: more battleground voters (47%) say Trump is aligned with their political views and values compared to 42% saying the same for Biden. Furthermore, Biden is worse off than Trump by 7 points among Independent voters who say they do not represent their views and values.
Head-to-Head: Biden has lost considerable ground with Independents (-10), young men (-14) and women (-9), and black voters (-19) resulting in Trump’s lead now at +7 (Trump 48%, Biden 41%).
Full Presidential Ballot: Trump maintains a 7-point lead (45%) over Biden (38%). In May, the difference between Trump and Biden was only 1%.
Top Issues: inflation and the costs of living, especially for parents (37%), continues to trend upward as voters’ top concern (29%) followed by border security and illegal immigration (22%). A distant third are ‘threats to democracy’ (14%) while only 3% are concerned about election integrity.