Right Direction/Wrong Track
A large majority – 70% of voters – believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, with 48% saying the U.S. is definitely heading in the wrong direction. Inflation and the cost of living is the top concern for 34% of voters, and 85% of those voters believe the US is on the wrong track, as respondents give really poor marks on economic issues.
Ohio’s right direction/wrack track number is just barely underwater by a margin of -5%, and this split is what is driving the strong numbers for Republicans right now. The table below shows the breakdown by self-identified party ID on what track a voter put Ohio and the nation. For example, a near majority of 47% of Republicans say that Ohio is on the right track, but the United States is heading in the wrong direction.
Generic and State Level Ballots
The generic ballot shows an 11% lead for Republicans, who take 52% of the vote to Democrat’s 41% – a slightly higher margin to the 2020 presidential election – in what is sure to be a high turnout midterm. Both downballot Republicans are meeting that number with current Attorney General Dave Yost leading 52/36 (+16%) and right behind him is Secretary of State Frank LaRose who is ahead 49/33 (+16%).
The ticket for Governor and LG of Mike DeWine and Jon Husted are running farther ahead with a whopping 21-point lead and a clear majority of the vote, even with 9% undecided. A lot of this crossover strength is winning over Democrats, including 17% of Democratic men. This is much higher than the 10% and 9% share of Democratic male voters that Yost and LaRose win, respectively. These voters really give him credit because among those that believe that the governor has the most impact on their day to day lives, he is winning 64% to 30%, a 34-point lead. This is compared to a 13% margin on the recalled ballot, a larger gap than his overall overperformance of Trump’s 2020 margin.
Tim Ryan has an 8% lead among Independent voters but that is still not enough to hold the lead and JD Vance leads 47/43 (+4%) on the ballot in our poll. Biden is the millstone here as Vance leads by 72% to 19% among those with an unfavorable view of Biden. Gender and education are the largest demographic splits, and men without a degree make up the core of Vance’s base.
Ryan has also stayed flat as Vance has continued to build his lead each time we’ve polled, as shown below:
Note on Turnout
We have created a projected electorate based off of a high turnout midterm, so we have safeguards in place where we have a buffer for high enthusiasm. As a tracking poll with an already voted share and one where we are tracking vote enthusiasm and intention, we will have good insights as we get closer to Election Day as to what turnout will be and adjust if we are seeing something lower or higher than our current projections. This matters a lot because of the split in this race on this question. Among the 79% of voters that say that they are definitely still planning to vote or has already voted, Vance jumps out to a 50/43 (+7%) lead and a lower turnout election would benefit him. While there are close to twice as many undecideds the other way, and some will end up dropping out, it is flipped when we look at the other 21% of voters saying that they will probably vote. Among these voters instead, Tim Ryan has a 45/38 (+7%) lead. These ‘probably’ voters are 57% women, which is more than the 52% of women in the definitely voting bloc, and 26% of them are 18-34 years old against 16% of definitely voters. One question that we have asked as well was enthusiasm on a 1-to-10-point scale with 1 being the least excited and 10 being the most excited. The results of this question are shown below broken out by ‘Definitely Voting/Already Voted or Probably Voting’:
It’s become a cliché at this point, but it really does all come down to turnout, but it would take a Democratic surge to close the gap in the Senate race. Vance has the upper hand on the overall topline and with the voters most likely to show up.
Be on the lookout for brand new OH data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Ohio, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all about Cygnal Momentum by clicking here.
Cygnal’s Ohio Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown DMAs.