Cygnal Poll: McConnell Up Double-Digits in Kentucky Senate Race Two Weeks from Election Day

WASHINGTON D.C. – Less than two weeks from Election Day, a poll conducted by Cygnal, a national survey research and polling firm, shows Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell cruising to victory over Democratic challenger Amy McGrath. 

“McConnell should be feeling very confident,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “The Senate Leader has had a historic role in driving the effort to confirm Trump’s judicial appointees to the federal bench–including Amy Coney Barrett–and it’s clear voters in the Bluegrass State appreciate his work. He’s leading with the voters most likely to show up on Election Day and we expect him back in Washington for another six years.”

The Cygnal survey, conducted October 19 – 20, with 640 likely general election voters, shows McConnell leading McGrath 50% to 40%, with 5% of voters supporting the Libertarian candidate and 5% still undecided. Cygnal conducted the poll in partnership with the Ready Education Network, a national coalition focused on improving education.

Women are split between the two candidates while McConnell leads by 24 points among men. McGrath is up 15 points with voters under 50, but older voters are supporting McConnell by a margin of 26 points. McConnell is ahead with every income bracket and education level, as well as high-propensity voters. 

“Not only is McConnell up 10 points, he’s hit the 50% mark and has a positive net favorability rating while McGrath’s image is underwater with an abysmal -12,” said Chris Kratzer, Vice President of Research and Analysis at Cygnal. “At this point, McGrath just doesn’t have a path to victory.” 

When it comes to COVID-19, Kentucky voters are split, 47% – 47%, on whether the public health impact or the economic fallout is more important. 

With many of the nation’s public schools opting to not hold in-classroom instruction, 55% of Kentuckians support allowing parents to control a portion of the tax dollars that are designated for their children’s education if their school is closed for in-person learning. Only 20% oppose the idea.

This advanced mixed-mode survey was conducted on October 19 – 20, with 640 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±3.87%. Interviews were conducted using live agents calling cell phones and landlines, an online sample acquired via SMS invitations sent to known registered voters, and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to landline phones.

Cygnal is not working with any candidate or independent expenditure in the Kentucky U.S. Senate race.

The toplines can be found below. You can download the xtabs for this survey here.