WASHINGTON D.C. – Less than two weeks from election day, a poll conducted by Cygnal, a national survey research and polling firm, shows Governor Mike Parson on his way to winning his first full term in office, besting Democratic challenger Nicole Galloway by 6 points.
“Parson’s lead is outside the margin of error and he’s ahead where it really counts—with high-propensity voters,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “While Galloway is ahead with some demographic groups, her margins pale in comparison to Parson’s leads with other groups.”
The Cygnal survey, conducted October 18 – 20, with 600 likely general election voters, shows Parson leading Galloway 48% to 42%, with 2% of voters supporting the Libertarian candidate and 7% still undecided. Cygnal conducted the poll in partnership with the Ready Education Network, a national coalition focused on improving education.
As the current Governor, Parson has a slight name recognition advantage with a hard name ID of 89%. But Galloway, the State Auditor and the only Democratic statewide official in Missouri, is right on his heels with 76% hard name ID. Additionally, Galloway is well-liked by those who know her—her net favorability is 6 points higher than Parson’s.
Parson leads by 20 points with men while Galloway has a 5-point lead with women. Parson has a 12-point lead with voters age 50 and older, while younger voters are within the margin of error (+3 for Galloway). Parson leads with every income bracket. Independents are breaking for Galloway.
“In a topsy-turvy election year, Missouri is one state that will remain consistent, at least when it comes to the state’s highest office,” said Chris Kratzer, Vice President of Research and Analysis at Cygnal. “With fewer than two weeks to go, Parson’s lead will be difficult to overcome.”
When it comes to COVID-19, half of Missouri voters are most concerned about its public health impact, while 44% believe the economic fallout is more important.
With many of the nation’s public schools opting to not hold in-classroom instruction, 52% of Missourians support allowing parents to control a portion of the tax dollars that are designated for their children’s education if their school is closed for in-person learning. Only 22% oppose the idea.
This advanced mixed-mode survey was conducted on October 18 – 20 with 600 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±4.00%. Interviews were conducted using live agents calling cell phones and landlines, an online sample acquired via SMS invitations sent to known registered voters, and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to landline phones.
Cygnal is not working with any candidate or independent expenditure in the Missouri gubernatorial race.
The toplines can be found below. You can download the xtabs for this survey here.