On Tuesday, November 2, 2021, Cygnal conducted its own Exit Poll of 1,329 Virginia voters. The margin of error was ±2.62%. The results were spot-on! Republican statewide candidates would each win by 2.0% – 2.6% The statewide legislative generic ballot was R+2.2.
Joe Biden’s image stays underwater at 51% unfavorable and 47% favorable, a weight on Democrats up and down the ballot. Terry McAuliffe’s image isn’t much better at 50% unfavorable and 47% favorable with slightly less intensity than Biden’s.
Glenn Youngkin is very well-liked considering the tens of millions of dollars spent against him – 50% favorable and 46% unfavorable.
Youngkin (Gov), Winsome Sears (LG), and Jason Miyares (AG) were all at 50%+ favorability.
A large share of voters had made up their mind well before Election Day, but those who made up their mind in the closing weeks and days went heavily for Youngkin.
Education was the top issue voters used in deciding who to support for Governor followed by jobs and the economy. Glenn Youngkin dominated education voters and led with jobs / economy voters. Terry McAuliffe won handily with issues that are much more left-leaning but not as important in vote choice.
There’s so much more data here that we’re still poring through to learn lessons for our clients next year, and if you work with (or want to work with) Cygnal, give us a ring – we’d love to talk through specific insights!