Less than a week away from Tuesday’s election, a poll by Cygnal, a Montgomery, Ala.-based polling, communication, and digital firm, and L2, a national nonpartisan voter data and analytics provider, shows Judge Roy Moore ahead of incumbent Senator Luther Strange at 30.7% to Strange’s 22.6%, a difference of more than 8 points.
The poll also shows that Mo Brooks trails Moore by 13 points but is nearly within the margin of error of Strange. In the likely event of a runoff, Moore leads Strange by more than 10 points.
“We’re not at all shocked by these results. I expect Moore and Strange in the runoff election, but Strange hasn’t locked down the second spot yet,” said Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal. “It will be interesting to see if President Trump’s endorsement of Senator Strange increases voter turnout, which should favor Strange according to our survey results.”
While the poll was fielding, President Donald Trump offered his endorsement of Luther Strange. Despite the endorsement of Strange, his favorables remain low with voters that are 55 years of age and younger, as well as voters in Huntsville where he faces a 19 point favorability deficit.
“We have a real race on our hands here,” added Chris Kratzer, vice president of polling and communication at Cygnal. “I fully expect it to be neck-and-neck until the end for second place unless President Trump himself shows up to support Senator Strange.”
“Having conducted five surveys on this primary race since June, we have seen some wild swings,” remarked Cygnal vice president of digital and data Matt Hubbard. “Things appeared to have settled down some in the last weeks though, so the only thing that may alter the numbers are any last-minute bombshells – either good or bad.”
The Cygnal/L2 phone survey was conducted on August 8-9 with 502 known Republican primary voters who said they will participate in the special election, giving the poll a margin of error of +/-4.37%. Cygnal is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns or outside groups in the race.
“Alabama is always one of the best political states to watch, and we were glad to partner with Cygnal and empower the voter data for their survey,” concluded L2 vice president Paul Westcott.
To receive a copy of the polling memo, toplines, and crosstabs, email [email protected]