MONTGOMERY, Ala. – Two months out from the general special election, a poll by Cygnal, a Montgomery, Ala.-based polling and communication firm, and L2, a national nonpartisan voter data and analytics provider, shows Republican Roy Moore ahead of Democrat Doug Jones by 8 points – the same margin Moore held over Strange exactly two months ago before the primary.
The poll also found that voters likely to turn out for the December 12th special election are highly motivated to vote. More than 90% of the respondents said they were “definitely likely” to show up on Election Day. This is 5-7% higher than the surveys in the primary and runoff.
“This race between Moore and Jones looks a lot like the Moore-Strange competition of the past few months,” said Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal. “At this point, the data shows the result will be the same for Judge Moore come December.”
Moore leads Jones by 14 points among voters with the highest propensity to turn out, based on their past voting behavior. Independents have a similar favorable view of both candidates, but Moore leads the voting group by 23 points.
“The US Senate race is going to be won or lost in the Birmingham media market area,” added Matt Hubbard, vice president of research and analytics at Cygnal. “Roy Moore dominates in the other 60% of the state, so the Birmingham region becomes make or break for Doug Jones.”
The Cygnal/L2 phone survey was conducted on October 3-6 with 497 known general election voters who said they will participate in the special election, giving the poll a margin of error of +/-4.4%. Cygnal is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns or outside groups in the race.
“Voters are definitely creatures of habit, as our voter file and this poll show,” concluded L2 vice president Paul Westcott.
The survey also asked voters their opinion of Governor Ivey, who is viewed more favorably than President Trump by 7pts. Even 59% of Doug Jones voters perceive Ivey in a positive light.