Cygnal’s Pulse Pod Ep. 79 – “Karens” Freak Out Over ICE Raids as Hispanic Support for Deportations Surges: NVT Poll w/ Pollsters Brent Buchanan and Nick Weinstein – Join us for the latest episode of Cygnal’s Pulse Pod as we dive into the most recent political trends and public opinion shifts that are reshaping America’s political landscape. Our data-driven analysis reveals some surprising developments that you won’t want to miss.
Highlights:
- Spike Alert: For the first time since September 2022, threats to democracy (18%) has overtaken inflation and the economy (17%) as the top priority among likely voters. This marks an 18-point drop for concerns about inflation/economy since April. This shift is mostly driven by Democrats (-15 since June), younger voters (-17), and non-white voters (-11).
- Immune to Changing Circumstances: 78 percent of voters who switched to Trump in 2024 or were new Trump voters said that he keeps his promises better than most politicians. Half of all voters agree, and 38 percent said Trump keeps his campaign promises “much better than most.”
- Tale of Two Republics – CA vs. TX: Voters prefer Texas as a national model over California, except on abortion, which ranks lowest (1%) in top priorities. Even on gun control, Texas (32%) outranks California (27%) as well as on crime and public safety (TX-35% to CA-16%)
- Karens on ICE: As we noted above, prevailing narratives don’t align with where voters are on issues surrounding illegal immigration. But who are the voters most apoplectic about the recent ICE raids? While voters are split overall, it’s mostly women – specifically, older women moved from +32 net on generic deportation to net-even while non-college educated women moved from +26 net to net-even.
- Lions and Hammers: The Israeli-led Operation Rising Lion to destroy Iran’s terrorist apparatus and deter offensive attacks had 50 percent overall support driven largely by men (+29 net justified). The American-led Operation Midnight Hammer had more overall support (57%) with a quarter of Democrats saying the attack was justified. Swing voters also agree (58-32 in favor). Depending on voters’ cable news preferences, the cause of the Israel-Iran conflict is drastically different. If you watch MSNBC, it’s Israel’s fault (+9%) but if you watch Fox News, it’s because of Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions (+15%).
Brent Buchanan X: @brentbuc
Nick Weinstein X: @nickweinstein
Be sure to subscribe to The Pulse Pod!
