National Poll: Republicans Not-Named-Donald-Trump Make Largest Month-Over-Month Gain while Trump Doubles Net Margin Lead 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 5, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following shock national poll (conducted July 1-2) of 1,500 likely general election voters.   

“Post-debate, we’ve seen the largest single month-over-month movement towards Republicans across-the-board, from R+0 to R+4, in the history of our national polling,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “President Biden’s image worsened to 62 percent having an unfavorable view of him after 67 percent of respondents said they watched his disastrous debate performance. Trump’s performance earned him 4 points of undecided debate-watchers and another 3 points from those who were Biden supporters heading into the debate. There’s little question this has further eroded the political environment for Democrats.” 

Here are Buchanan’s top takeaways: 

Debate Fallout: Of the 67% who watched the debate, 62% said they thought Donald Trump won compared to just 18% for Biden. Among “double haters”, 57% also said Trump won. Trump also made gains (+4) among undecided voters as well as (+3) among Biden supporters. 

Kamala’s Impact: Vice President Harris similarly bad numbers as Biden with 58% having an unfavorable view of her compared to 35% favorable. When asked about the potentiality of Harris becoming president and whether that would influence their vote this November, 7% of voters said they would vote for Trump instead and 10% said they would not vote for Biden in November or are now undecided. 

Presidential Ballot: Trump has doubled his lead (+6) over Biden since June on the full presidential ballot. In the head-to-head matchup with Biden, Trump leads (+5), a two-point gain since June.  

Presidential Push: When asked who voters would consider voting for, even if the options weren’t their first choice, Trump still leads (43%) Biden by five points. Among alternative candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a huge consideration (22%) over Jill Stein (10%) and Cornel West (10%). This shows the volatility of the potential turnout scenarios. 

Economic Indicators: Voters still say the biggest thing they look for as a sign of a good economy is when they buy things at cheaper prices (24%) compared to less than half that (12%) who say it’s lower gas prices. Only 5% said a high stock market was a good sign for them, and 4% said when the economy doesn’t feel like a recession is coming soon, down four points from April. 

Housing Concerns: 86% of voters say they are concerned about the cost of housing while only 11% say they are not concerned, furthering indicating voters are worried about their economic future. 15% said lower housing costs are a good sign of a healthy economy. 

Climate Change: 68% of voters said the recent attacks by climate change activists on landmarks like Stone Henge or at events like the PGA tournaments hurt their cause. This includes 48% of Independent voters and 42% among “double haters”.