Pennsylvania Poll: First Fielded Straddling the Debate – Trump with Strong Lead and McCormick within Striking Distance of Casey  

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 1, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following Pennsylvania statewide poll (conducted June 27-28 – the day of before the debate started and the day after the debate) of 800 likely general election voters. The poll was managed by Cygnal pollsters Brock McCleary, a Pennsylvania native, and Brent Buchanan, the company’s president. 

“The political environment in Pennsylvania is encouraging for Republicans, even as the Democrat campaign machine has poured millions into the commonwealth trying to bolster Senator Casey’s lackluster image,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “Our data shows Dave McCormick’s race to unseat Casey is more competitive than many think. Casey has 20 years in office, high name ID, and comes from a political legacy family – yet despite those advantages, he’s managed to get his campaign in a precarious position. This is due to factors like a large majority of voters believing the nation is on the wrong track, swing voters placing increased importance on inflation and the economy, and more than half of voters saying they believe Casey is a partisan. This has created favorable conditions for the McCormick campaign as well as Republican races across the commonwealth.” 

“Trump holds a four-point lead over incumbent Joe Biden in both the head-to-head matchup and full presidential ballot,” said Cygnal and Trump 2020 pollster, Brock McCleary. “Trump turned the Keystone State red in 2016 but Biden was able to flip it back to blue in 2020, meaning Pennsylvania is likely determine the next President. This latest data shows momentum building for Trump with his net favorability increasing to 45 percent while Biden’s stands at just 39 percent, coupled with an even worse number – an unfavorable view among voters at 60 percent.” 

Here are McCleary and Buchanan’s top takeaways from this poll: 

Senate Ballot: Dave McCormick (R) 42%, Bob Casey (D) 46%, Undecided 12%. Fewer than four-in-ten voters believe Casey deserves reelection (39%) while nearly half (48%) said they want someone new – even 16% of Democrats said they wanted someone new. Roughly half of voters want a Republican who would be a check on Biden’s policies should he win a second term, and a clear majority (55%) said they disapprove of the current policies Biden and Democrats are pushing in this election. 

Presidential Ballot: On a full ballot, Trump (42%), Biden (38%), RFK Jr. (9%); 23% of swing voters are undecided. In a two-way-race, Trump leads Biden 48% to 44% with 8% undecided. 

Presidential Debate: 66% of voters watched all or at least some of Thursday’s debate. A sentiment analysis on open-ended responses showed 22% had generally negative things to say about Biden compared to only 13% saying similarly negative things about Trump. 18% had bad things to say about both candidates. (NOTE: Sample of debate watchers only came from Friday responses; that sample was collected in a way to mirror the likely voter universe answering Thursday.) 

Statewide Images: Governor Josh Shapiro (52% fav, 34% unfav); Senator John Fetterman (47% fav, 43% unfav); Senator Bob Casey (44% fav, 39% unfav); US Senate candidate Dave McCormick (33% fav, 31% unfav, 19% no opinion, 18% never heard of) 

Top Issues: Inflation and the economy overall (26%), with swing voters (37%). Illegal immigration (18%) and ‘threats to democracy’ (17%) come in second and third place respectively. Both are very partisan-driven issues.