Poll: Shapiro Only Ahead by 3%, Fetterman by 4%

New Cygnal survey of 535 likely voters shows Republicans overperforming expectations

WASHINGTON D.C. – Pennsylvania is, once again, a true battleground where the Democratic statewide candidates aren’t going to have a cakewalk to victory in November. A new poll of 535 likely voters shows Democrat John Fetterman only 4% ahead of Republican Mehmet Oz (48% – 44%) and Democrat Josh Shapiro only 3% ahead of Republican Doug Mastriano (48% – 45%).

“Despite the name identification disadvantage of running against two statewide elected officials, Republicans Mastriano and Oz already hold solid leads with Independent voters,” remarked pollster Brock McCleary, Vice President at Cygnal, a DC-based polling firm that has been ranked most accurate. On the heels of contested primary elections, both Republicans candidates show no signs of weakness with rank-and-file Republican voters.

Pennsylvania voters are overly concerned about inflation and the rising cost of living with 37% picking it as their top issue. It’s mostly voters under the age of 50 that are driving the high number. African-American voters are also more concerned about inflation than voters of other races.

“The political environment for Democrats in Pennsylvania is so bad that it is reaching levels not seen since 2010 in President Obama’s first midterm when Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives. And Biden’s job approval is considerably worse than Obama’s at the time,” McCleary added.

Voters who are concerned about inflation as the top issue are picking Mastriano 55% to 40%. Economy / jobs voters are also overwhelmingly supporting Mastriano 51% to 38%. The same trend holds true for Oz, who is earning significantly more inflation and economic voters than Fetterman.

“As the economy continues to deteriorate and inflation gets worse, Mastriano and Oz will continue to gain more steam,” noted Cygnal’s Chris Kratzer. “Voters know Democrats have mismanaged our economy with reckless spendings and focused on radial left issues instead of the well-being of Americans and Pennsylvanians.”

The toplines and crosstabs can be viewed and downloaded below.