Poll: Trump holds commanding lead in potential 2024 GOP presidential primary

WASHINGTON D.C. — A survey of 1,204 likely Republican presidential primary voters, conducted by the international polling and predictive analytics firm Cygnal, shows former President Donald Trump with a strong hold on the presidential primary ballot, and a GOP base motivated by inflation and pocketbook issues. 

The nationwide Cygnal survey – conducted October 10 – 12 with a margin of error of  ±2.82% – took an in-depth look at top issues and potential GOP candidate favorability, including 22 Republicans with national profiles. 

Trump has a healthy lead, both on the ballot and in overall favorability, with 78% of GOP primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him. Trump leads the hypothetical ballot with a near majority, with 45% indicating they plan to vote for the former president.  

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (26%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (9%) are behind Trump followed by Senator Ted Cruz. When Trump is excluded from the ballot, DeSantis jumps to 46%. Liz Cheney and Chris Christie are the least popular Republicans tested. 

In addition to DeSantis, Cygnal’s poll looked at seven additional current GOP governors including Greg Abbott, Glenn Youngkin, Brian Kemp, Kristi Noem, Chris Sununu, Asa Hutchison, and Larry Hogan. Behind DeSantis, Abbott leads the gubernatorial pack followed closely by Kemp, Youngkin, and Noem.  

Hutchison, Sununu, and Hogan round out the bottom tier of GOP governors and are the least well known of all GOP hopefuls tested. 

One thing GOP voters are clear about—their top concerns are pocketbook issues. Immigration is still a large issue for the oldest GOP voters, but 59% of respondents selected an economic issue on the top issue question. There was less clarity on defense priorities; the same amount of GOP primary voters that want the U.S. to maintain global military dominance desire to de-escalate military engagements. 

Likely 2024 Republican primary election voters nationwide were interviewed between October 10 – 12, 2022. This survey has a sample size of n1204 and a MoE of ±2.82%.