AL-06 Shock Poll Shows Palmer with Commanding Lead

Cygnal conducted independent survey research for GOP primary runoff

A poll conducted this week by Cygnal, a Montgomery-based political strategy, research, media, and public relations firm, indicates that Gary Palmer has surged ahead of Paul DeMarco after the primary election five weeks ago. Palmer sits at 59.6% to DeMarco’s 29.3%.

The phone survey was conducted on July 7-8 with 647 known Republican primary voters, giving the flash poll a margin of error of +/- 3.84%. Cygnal is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns or outside groups in the race.

“We were as shocked as anyone to see the results, but the huge gap between Palmer’s and DeMarco’s favorables explains the current margin,” said Managing Partner Brent Buchanan. “AL-06 is a very conservative district, and those with a high propensity to vote and conservative-leaning ideology are backing Gary Palmer.”

“After seeing how a good number of pollsters took a hit with Eric Cantor’s loss in Virginia, you can imagine how careful we were to select an appropriate sample of voters,” said VP of Data & Strategy Cory Brown. “Primary runoffs are odd beasts when it comes to properly assessing turnout, but we feel confident that the candidate order is correct, though the margin could shift wildly in the final days.”

Two issue questions were also included in the flash poll regarding their opinion of the state legislature and voters’ connection with Tea Party views. 57.4% of Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of the legislature, but only 12.9% is very favorable. Among those surveyed, 15.8% agree with 100 percent of the Tea Party’s views, 42.2% feel they share most of the Tea Party’s views, and 42.1% share some or none.

A polling memo, toplines of the flash poll, and a PDF presentation are available on the Cygnal website.