Noah Rudnick

Director, Research / Election Data Junkie

Noah is the Research Director on the sampling team, which means that he spends a lot of time with the numbers and methodology behind the projects. He lives with his wife and two cats in the West Virginia panhandle, right in the perfect intersection of beautiful mountain hiking and wine country."

What was your first job?
I was a cashier at a K-Mart that began the process of going out of business about 6 months after I got there. Working in those conditions with an endless rush of shoppers looking for deals as the logistics slowly started to break down around us was great preparation for the election season.

If I were a superhero, my superpower would be…
Very cliché for someone who works in polling but it would be extremely useful to be able to read people’s thoughts, especially over the phone!

The best piece of advice I’ve ever been given is…
Every move and decision players in the political industry make is strategic. But when a person gets into the voting booth, the decision for them is 100% emotional. Our job is bridging that gap.

What motivated you to select this career path?
There is no feeling quite like poring over endless numbers and discovering a new insight or trend that is translated into actionable items you can see in the real world, making a real difference.

Posts Featuring Noah

Biden’s Future Hinges on an Economic Recovery

James Carville minted the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” in 1992 to win the presidency, and it appears that not much has changed since then. Every month, Cygnal runs a nationwide tracking poll of around 6,000 respondents that asks questions about the national environment, top issues, and more. You can check out the service here: https://www.cygn.al/services/district-issue-tracking/.  One question that is the most interesting when trying to get a gauge of the nation is taking the temperature […]

Read More

The Imaginary Democratic Rural Gains

Below is a map showing the change in the margin between 2016 and 2020. I’m sure you’ve seen it many times before but if not, this looks like a lot of blue. One of the reasons that it appears blue is that Biden made gains in the margins of rural counties, especially in places like the Midwest and Appalachia, where other Democrats have […]

Read More

Republican Priorities are Shifting with the News

At Cygnal, we run a tracking poll of about 6,000 respondents nationwide every month that asks questions about Biden’s approval, the generic ballot, among others that you can check out here: https://www.cygn.al/services/district-issue-tracking/. We also run state and area-based modeling so you can see the toplines on a more granular level. One of the questions that we ask is […]

Read More

The Real Variable That Is Predicting Realignment

If you’ve been following politics, you may have heard the phrase “density polarization” to refer to the new political realignment. Derek Thompson of The Atlantic even referred to it as the “destiny” of the new coalition. This refers to the fact that rural areas are consistently voting more Republican, while cities are voting Democratic. At […]

Read More

The Parties’ Changing Coalitions by Congressional District

Though we disagree vehemently on ideology 🤫, the data team over at Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the last three presidential elections by congressional district, a gift for us election data nerds.  Here at Cygnal, we like to use these numbers to look at different trends over time – especially anything that […]

Read More

County Trends & Toplines

Below is a dashboard that tracks the difference in the margin between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In the top left corner is a dropdown menu to filter the results by whichever state you would like to see. The top is a map and then all of the counties are plotted below showing the […]

Read More

Republicans Raised 2 Billion Dollars in 2020. Where Did it Go? We Have the Details.

After years of being outpaced among individual donors, WinRed, a donation platform, was created as an answer to ActBlue Democratic's third-party processing site for donations . With the party completely on board, WinRed would process almost $2 billion for the 2020 cycle to federal races, on top of state and local candidates. Find out where the money went.

Read More