Whitmer is just below the 50% mark with a 5-and-a-half-point lead over Dixon (though that will probably shrink as we’ll talk about in the next section), and the generic ballot holds steady at R+2. Incumbent Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also has a seven-point lead of 48% / 41%, but in the Attorney General race, Dana Nessel only leads 45% / 43% (+2%). The table below shows that some of this is a higher undecided number for Democrats but also more undecideds with Independents too. As partisans return home, and without the actual third-party number being higher, it would not be surprising to see this margin wind up similar to the other statewide candidates.
In the race for Governor, currently 6% of respondents are not choosing either Whitmer or Dixon, with about half saying undecided and the other half saying that they will choose a third-party candidate. So, who are these voters? Overall, about three quarters (74%) are still telling us they will vote, and 80% of those voters are not planning to vote until Election Day. However, only 13% said they were a 10 out of 10 on the enthusiasm scale, compared to the over 40% among those who had chosen a candidate.
This group is likely to break more towards Republicans, choosing them 44% / 18% (+26%) on the generic congressional ballot, similar to the 42% / 24% (+18%) lead for Trump over Biden in the recalled vote. Governor Whitmer has a 21% / 69% (-48%) favorable image and Dixon is at 22% / 50% (-28%) among undecideds and third party voters so opposition is also not as high to her, but the higher third-party voting intention makes more sense. The below table shows the share of each age group that is undecided in the gubernatorial are and it is younger voters that are up for grabs while 97% of seniors have picked either Whitmer or Dixon.
Based on the popularity of the Governor, we can see the margin tightening but only by a few points maximum as these are likely to break more for Dixon. Whitmer’s best case scenario is seeing the younger third-party voters come home but also seeing her margin stay the same if the unenthusiastic undecideds just drop off altogether.
The last three runs of our Michigan poll also asked about Proposition 1, which would require yearly financial disclosure reports from lawmakers and create a 12-year total term limit in the state legislature. Our overall topline shows that this is very likely to pass as it currently stands at 61% support to 23% oppose on the ballot.
There are also more signs that if anything, this is underestimating the lead. The table below looks at the margin broken out by party based on whether the respondent has already voted (AV) or still has yet to vote. This is a good metric for ballot measures especially because they tend to have more undecideds among those still voting and people have not researched what it is yet and formed an opinion. Republicans are less likely to have voted early which is why the overall will vote number is much lower, but Proposition 1 is rocking a 76% / 15% (+61%) lead among those who have already voted.
For respondents within each party, those that have already voted are much more likely to have supported Proposition 1, especially a shift among Independents. This is in good shape to pass and if voters keep breaking this way, pass by a very, very large margin.
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. The next round will be released Monday, Oct. 26. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.