In the marquee Senate race, Vance’s lead has stayed a steady 4%, and time is running out for Ryan. Undecideds dropped and each candidate gained a point, so the window of uncertainty is closing. We are only at 9% of respondents saying that they have voted but with a recalled ballot of 68% / 27% (+41%) for Trump. Vance is winning them 68% / 32% (+36%) with Ryan falling behind metrics needed to pull even or win. Over three quarters of respondents told us they weren’t planning to vote until Election Day – unlike other states where more and more are voting early – so there is still time for movement.
There has been a new prevailing theory about the impact of gas prices on the ballot, and with a tracker, we wanted to see this effect on the ballot. What we found is that they are very closely tied together, and the chart below plots out the daily OH gas price on the polling date, the generic ballot number, and those saying that inflation and the cost of living is a top priority:
As gas prices increased, voters were more likely to choose the Republican candidate, and the concern over inflation would rise, though there was a slight lag there. Ryan’s and Democrats’ odds nationwide really could be pegged to the price at the pump, and this likely introduces a new measure of geographic variation to results.
Why is DeWine so much farther ahead than JD Vance? The below chart breaks down the raw share of the vote each candidate is receiving by ideology and gender:
Among the very conservative voters, Vance is even running ahead of DeWine but both are taking almost all of these voters so DeWine is not losing any votes from his right flank. But Vance struggles with somewhat conservative voters and especially runs well behind among moderate voters. This is a bit unique to DeWine as a generic Republican wins only 37% of moderates and 7% of liberal voters, and Vance is only slightly behind this margin. In the gubernatorial race, they are much more likely to cross over. It is unlikely that the Vance or the other Republicans will hit DeWine’s numbers, but he needs to catch up among the somewhat conservatives. The chart below shows the candidate split again but this time only among somewhat conservatives and split by community type:
Vance is tied among rural somewhat conservatives with DeWine but quickly falls behind in suburban and urban areas. Among urban somewhat conservatives, 17% are voting for Democrat Nan Whaley in the gubernatorial race, the same voting for Ryan, and then the rest are undecideds yet to break. But among suburbanites, Ryan takes 14%, double Whaley’s 7%, and these are the actual crossovers. Conservative undecideds outnumber liberal undecideds and Vance has more runway to gain votes, and it’s in suburban and urban areas he needs to make inroads and those will be the final ones to move.
Be on the lookout for brand new OH data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Ohio, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all about Cygnal Momentum by clicking here.
Cygnal’s Ohio Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown DMAs.