There has been no movement on the generic ballot and not much shift in the statewide races, but we are now looking at JD Vance up by 5 in the Senate race when he was up by 4 last time. Vance is also keeping pace among the share who have already voted, which is now up to 12.2% of all voters. Biden won this group 54% / 39% (+15%), and Ryan is only up 57% / 38% (+19%). In a state that Trump won by 8 and where a midterm electorate is likely to be a bit more right leaning, he’s missing his targets. The generic ballot is also lagging a bit at 56% / 40% (+16%) (though not by much).
On the SoS ballot, Democrat Chelsea Clark leads among the already voted respondents by 46% / 43% (+3%). In the AG race, Democrat Jeffrey Crossman is up by the same margin with those who have already voted at 48% / 45% (+3%). Governor DeWine, who has a larger lead overall, is still behind in early voting as Democrat Nan Whaley is up 49% / 47% (+2%), which may indicate Democrats coming home, but these early voters are also the most partisan.
The Senate topline change wasn’t just undecideds breaking, as Vance gained half a point on the ballot while Ryan lost half a point in his support. The movement has come from somewhat conservatives coming home and moving towards Vance. When we started polling, Vance led this group 75% / 16% (+59%) and is now up 81% / 13% (+68%), and the trendline is shown below:
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Cygnal’s Ohio Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown DMAs.