Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/27/22  

Results Update 
There has been no movement on the generic ballot and not much shift in the statewide races, but we are now looking at JD Vance up by 5 in the Senate race when he was up by 4 last time. Vance is also keeping pace among the share who have already voted, which is now up to 12.2% of all voters. Biden won this group 54% / 39% (+15%), and Ryan is only up 57% / 38% (+19%). In a state that Trump won by 8 and where a midterm electorate is likely to be a bit more right leaning, he’s missing his targets. The generic ballot is also lagging a bit at 56% / 40% (+16%) (though not by much).

On the SoS ballot, Democrat Chelsea Clark leads among the already voted respondents by 46% / 43% (+3%). In the AG race, Democrat Jeffrey Crossman is up by the same margin with those who have already voted at 48% / 45% (+3%). Governor DeWine, who has a larger lead overall, is still behind in early voting as Democrat Nan Whaley is up 49% / 47% (+2%), which may indicate Democrats coming home, but these early voters are also the most partisan.  

The Senate topline change wasn’t just undecideds breaking, as Vance gained half a point on the ballot while Ryan lost half a point in his support. The movement has come from somewhat conservatives coming home and moving towards Vance. When we started polling, Vance led this group 75% / 16% (+59%) and is now up 81% / 13% (+68%), and the trendline is shown below:  

Be on the lookout for brand new OH data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Ohio, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all about Cygnal Momentum by clicking here.

Cygnal’s Ohio Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown DMAs.