MONTGOMERY, Ala.– With just five days until the midterm elections, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows the Ohio gubernatorial race tied headed into Tuesday.
Ohio Governor hopefuls Republican Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray are in a statistical tie. DeWine holds a slight lead over Cordray 43.4% – 43.2%. 3% of respondents prefer Libertarian Candidate Travis Irvine, and nearly 9% of respondents are still undecided.
“With voter enthusiasm lower in Ohio than any other state we’ve seen, this race is going to come down to whether low-propensity Trump voters show up or sit it out,” said Brett Cowden, Cygnal’s vice president of client strategy. “If those supporters of the president turn out, and DeWine improves his margins with male voters, DeWine should win on Tuesday.”
Of the 27% of respondents who have already voted, 54% indicated they supported Cordray, while 39% say they’ve voted for DeWine. Conversely, of the 65% of respondents who say they will definitely vote (on election day), Dewine leads 45% – 39%
“The fundamentals of candidates and campaigns are on display in Ohio this cycle. DeWine and Cordray have strong name ID so the race is close; Renacci has a significant no opinion/never heard of response, which leads to Brown’s significant margin in the US Senate race,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder.
In the US Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jim Renacci by more than 10-points, with 6% of voters still undecided. The live telephone survey conducted October 30 – 31, with 503 likely general election voters, shows Brown up over Renacci 52.4% to 42%, well outside the margin of error.
Republican Dave Yost leads Democrat Steven Dettelbach on the Attorney General ballot 46% – 43%. 12% of voters are still undecided.
As the final days of election season come to a close, interest in the midterm election is waning among Ohio voters. When asked how interested they were in the upcoming midterm elections on a scale of 0 to 10, 65% of survey respondents rated their interest as a 9 or 10, much lower than other states Cygnal has surveyed recently. 9% of voters said their interest in the election was low, falling between 0 and 5.
Methodology
This probabilistic live telephonesurvey was conducted on October 30 – 31 with 503 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±4.37%. Interviews were conducted by live professional agents calling landline and cell phones. Cygnal is unaffiliated with either campaign or outside groups in the race.
The toplines and crosstabs have been uploaded to our website. You can view our analysis memo here and a presentation of the results here.
Full data sets – including complete crosstabs, Smart Tables, and an extended memo – are available for purchase at a nominal fee; email [email protected] for details.
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Cygnal is a Montgomery, Ala.-based polling and research firm that has conducted more than 780 survey research projects in 42 states.Our team nailed both the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, correctly predicting Trump’s margin in Florida and his win in Wisconsin. Campaigns, corporations, associations, national committees, and state organizations rely on Cygnal to gather reliable, affordable polling data in state-wide, congressional, legislative, and local geographies.