Ballots
Governor Whitmer’s lead on the ballot is now at 6%, an improvement from the 5-point lead in our poll from last week and just below a majority. Republican support in the row offices has also dropped a little since last time, so AG Dana Nessel and SoS Jocelyn Benson both continue to lead. Even with large Democratic leads at the top of the ballot, Republicans are ahead 48% / 46% on the generic ballot, which has implications for the hard fought congressional and state legislative races. Pair that with the Michigan right direction/wrong track number that is underwater at 41% / 53% (-12%), there is still an opening for Republican inroads in the state.
Whitmer’s lead is powered by strong margins around Independents even though they only have a very unfavorable view (-32%) of Biden, and she has peeled off more Republican women than men.
Who Has Voted Already?
In our sample released today, 18% of respondents said that they had already voted absentee. This will include people who voted absentee after the day they answered the poll, but also the ballot still could be in the mail, so while this shouldn’t be used for exact modeling it lines up with our assumption of a very high turnout. However, this can be used to show us how undecideds are breaking. Of those who have already voted absentee, they told us that they voted for Biden by a huge 72% / 25% (+47%) margin. Whitmer is currently ahead in this group by a 75% / 22% (+53%) margin, outpacing the 2020 vote by a similar amount overall, and it could mean remaining undecideds don’t break too much for either candidate in the end. This would make sense because for the overall poll Governor Whitmer has a 51% favorable rating compared to 43% for Dixon, an 8-point gap that mirrors the margin.
Note on Turnout
Between a lot of spending on this race and several ballot measures that have become high profile, we are modeling a very high turnout electorate. In our Ohio survey from yesterday, there was a pattern where Republican candidate JD Vance saw his lead grow among those that said they were definitely voting, while Democratic candidate Tim Ryan was ahead among those probably voting. This is usually the case because older and more reliable partisan voters tend to be more right-leaning, especially in a midterm. Michigan is a little different. Whitmer holds a 7-point lead of 50% / 43% among definitely and already voters, bolstered by the absentees we talked about in the last section. Among probably voters, that lead grows to 48% / 35% (+13%), which is still an improvement but not a double-digit difference like Ohio. With large leads in both groups, it is unlikely that a surprise turnout one way or the other would produce a different result in the race, and, ultimately, persuasion will be key .
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. The next round will be released Monday, Oct. 24. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.
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