The generic ballot remains at R+2, but on the named ballots Democrats made slight gains, as Whitmer now leads the gubernatorial race by 6 and the other two also moved more positive. Turnout is likely to be high in this race as more and more votes come in. We say that because it’s not just the definitely will vote absentee by mail that is dropping, but also those that said that they are only probably voting. Overall, assuming some people who say they are voting by mail not showing up, we would expect about 60% of the vote to come on Election Day.
As seen in this image, there’s pretty large gender polarization on the generic, and the suburbs have the widest gender margin with a 30-point gap, while the other groups remain at about 20%.
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. The next round will be released Monday, Oct. 24. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.
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