As the statewide average for gas in Michigan drops below $4, we also see the generic ballot flip towards the Democrats, and Governor Whitmer makes some gains on the ballot to +7. Interestingly enough, Whitmer and GOP candidate Tudor Dixon’s image stayed about even. One thing to keep an eye on in the closing week is that among voters who have not yet voted but say that they definitely will, Dixon holds a 50% / 45% (+5%) lead but falls behind by 10 points down 39% / 49% among those who say they probably will. On our first release ten days ago, we noticed that there wasn’t a gap between these two but a lot of the definitely Whitmer voters have already shown up and now if she wants to keep that lead, she will have to motivate the Democrats that are more on the fence about voting.
Proposition 2 is on the ballot and was read in full for the latest tracking round of our survey questionnaire, and covers a wide range of changes to the voting process. You can read the full list here but the largest change would be to add drop boxes for absentee ballots and begin nine days of early in-person voting, which is currently not an option in Michigan. Our overall topline shows a decent lead for this ballot measure, passing by a current margin of 59% / 33% (+26%), and one that is an over 50-point lead among those who have voted:
Seeing the margin among those who have voted can be a good proxy of an informed voter on these complex issues because people will usually do a little bit of research beforehand, even if it’s just light googling. A quick search of Proposition 2 shows not many partisan indicators though some Republicans have begun to air ads (or some out against it) recently over voter ID law changes. The Detroit Chamber of Commerce has endorsed it however, so there might be a split on the right in support, and it shows up where strongly Republican voters oppose this at a 29% / 64% (-35%) margin compared to the mostly Republican margin of 38% / 54% (-16%). The chart below compares each party’s support by already voted and outstanding votes.
Between Democrats becoming more supportive and Independents possibly reading more about Prop 2 and backing it over the standard status quo bias, it seems possible that support could grow from the current number, but it will likely at least hold its 59% with a very good chance of passing.
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. The next round will be released Monday, Nov. 1. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.