Results Update
The races have tightened with Republicans reclaiming the lead on the generic ballot, as Biden’s approval takes a small hit. Whitmer has also slipped just under 50% but after pushing undecided, comes back out to a 5-point lead. The top of the ticket for the governor’s race seems to be mirroring the images on these questions.
Proposal 3
As of a few days ago, Proposal 3 in Michigan, that focuses on abortion rights, had attracted more fundraising than the Governor, SoS, and AG races combined. It’s a hot button issue also likely driving turnout on both sides and has raised the profile of the issue. In Michigan, 26% of respondents chose “women’s right to choose abortion” as a top issue. In neighboring Ohio, our tracking survey shows that number is a lower 19%. For our recent round of the tracking survey, we asked about Proposal 3 and currently show it passing but with a slight majority for support at 52%. The table below shows a very large lead among those who voted so far, but it is underwater among outstanding voters and lower in support across the partisan spectrum.
There is some partisan crossover, especially among those who are only somewhat conservative or somewhat liberal. One of the largest differences though is community type, and the chart below shows that there is a higher no vote among Democrats from urban areas and more yes votes from urban Republicans. Among Independents, the highest support comes from the suburbs with 57% saying yes compared to under a majority in the other two areas.
Urban Democrats currently have a lower level of support, but the level saying no is still about even to other areas; it just has a larger number of undecideds. That is because the level of support among self-identified Democratic Black men is a little over 10 points lower than other groups, and these voters live more in urban areas.
Right now, Proposal 3 is in a position to pass thanks to some Republican support and near universal Democratic consolidation. The margin could be higher for passing if proponents appeal to urban voters, but the remaining Independent vote being against it means that there are turnout scenarios where the early vote is not enough to see it pass. Additionally, those answering that they were unsure on how they were voting on Prop 3 are planning to vote Republican on the generic ballot by a margin of 62% / 25% (+37), so they are likelier to break to the no side in an issue like this that is so partisan coded. This all points to a likely, but narrow, passage of the proposal.
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.
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