Noah Wyhof-Rudnick, Author at Cygnal

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/27/22

There has been no movement on the generic ballot and not much shift in the statewide races, but we are now looking at JD Vance up by 5 in the Senate race when he was up by 4 last time. Vance is also keeping pace among the share who have already voted, which is now up to 12.2% of all voters.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/26/22

There are still two more weeks left to go, but we believe that nearly a quarter of all those who are going to vote have already decided to do so absentee by mail. We also believe that a majority of those who have already voted are aged 65 and older and the majority is Democratic. On the recalled ballot, Biden won these 66% / 32% (+34%), and Whitmer is ahead 67% / 31% (+36%).

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/25/22

In the marquee Senate race, Vance’s lead has stayed a steady 4%, and time is running out for Ryan. Undecideds dropped and each candidate gained a point, so the window of uncertainty is closing. We are only at 9% of respondents saying that they have voted but with a recalled ballot of 68% / 27% (+41%) for Trump. Vance is winning them 68% / 32% (+36%) with Ryan falling behind metrics needed to pull even or win. Over three quarters of respondents told us they weren’t planning to vote until Election Day – unlike other states where more and more are voting early – so there is still time for movement.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/24/22

Whitmer is just below the 50% mark with a 5-and-a-half-point lead over Dixon (though that will probably shrink as we’ll talk about in the next section), and the generic ballot holds steady at R+2. Incumbent Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also has a seven-point lead of 48% / 41%, but in the Attorney General race, Dana Nessel only leads 45% / 43% (+2%). The table below shows that some of this is a higher undecided number for Democrats but also more undecideds with Independents too. As partisans return home, and without the actual third-party number being higher, it would not be surprising to see this margin wind up similar to the other statewide candidates.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/23/22

Democrats have very slightly tightened the generic and named ballots but continue to suffer from an enthusiasm problem, as Republicans have strong negative feelings towards President Biden and the direction of the country and are ready to vote. One of our questions asks enthusiasm on a 1 through 10 scale, with 10 being the most excited to vote. The table below takes the Senate ballot as an example and shows that JD Vance voters are much more likely to say that they are a 10 out of 10, while nearly 40% of Ryan voters chose 6 or lower.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/22/22

The generic ballot remained at R+2 but on the named ballots Democrats made slight gains, as Whitmer now leads the gubernatorial race by 6 and the other two also moved more positive. Turnout is likely to be high in this race as more and more votes come in. We say that because it’s not just the Definitely will vote absentee by mail that is dropping but also those that said that they are only Probably voting. Overall, assuming some people who say they are voting by mail not showing up, we would expect about 60% of the vote to come on Election Day.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/21/22

Republicans continue to hold wide leads on the generic ballot as well as Governor, AG, and SoS. The Senate ballot sees a very narrow tightening from 4 to 3 points, but each candidate’s support is becoming more solid and undecideds drop once again.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/20/22

Governor Whitmer’s lead on the ballot is now at 6%, an improvement from the 5-point lead of in our poll from last week and just below a majority. Republican support in the row offices has also dropped a little since last time so AG Dana Nessel and SoS Jocelyn Benson but both continue to lead. Even with large Democratic leads at the top of the ballot, Republicans are ahead 48/4 or a little under two points on the generic ballot, which has implications for the hard fought congressional and state legislative races. Pair that with the Michigan right direction/wrong track number that is underwater at 41/53 (-12%) and there is still an opening for Republican inroads in the state.

Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/19/22

A large majority of 70% of voters believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, with a near majority of 48% saying the U.S. is definitely heading in the wrong direction. Inflation and the cost of living is the top concern for 34% of voters, and 85% of those voters believe the US is on the wrong track, as respondents give really poor marks on economic issues.

Cygnal releases new methodology to capture even the smallest of movements in your race

Daily trackers need to collect a lot of samples, but the traditional rolling approach does not provide the ability to see a representative sample of small subgroups or drill down with nuance. Cygnal’s new Momentum methodology runs a 3-day rotating set of polls where each poll is a different demographic subgroup. We apply data science […]

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